Webinar: Unlock the power of national, regional and local data
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View these webinar slides to learn about national, regional and local case studies. You will hear: 1. Nationally: How the two child limit to tax credits is set to drive child poverty up by 10% by 2020 2. Regionally: First wave results from our work tracking income, employment and poverty for over half a million low-income households across London 3. Locally: How Winchester City Council's data led strategy uncovered hidden pockets of poverty Background The post-2015 welfare reforms will take almost £13bn a year from claimants by 2020-21, bringing the cumulative loss since 2010 to £27bn a year. This is equivalent to £690 a year for every adult of working age, according to analysis by Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research. Professor Christina Beatty said that the worst is yet to come for those who will be most severly hit, namely low income families with children. She urged local authorities to plan ahead for the impact. Understanding exactly which low income households will be impacted by the welfare reforms, and how, is the challenge. Policy in Practice works with local authorities to do just that. Our Low Income Family Tracker combines local authority data with a powerful modelling engine to show the aggregate and cumulative impact of reforms on each household so that local authorities can get the right support to those who need help the most, before crisis hits. More info Visit http://policyinpractice.co.uk/low-income-family-tracker/ for more details or email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk.
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Webinar: Unlock the power of national, regional and local data
- 1. Deven Ghelani Giovanni Tonutti Policy in Practice Webinar: Unlock the power of national, regional and local data Wed 24 May 2017
- 2. Housekeeping • Audio check • Please ask questions • Polls and a survey • Finish by 11:30
- 3. Speakers Giovanni Tonutti Policy in Practice Deven Ghelani Policy in Practice
- 4. We make the welfare system simple to understand, so that people can make the decisions that are right for them
- 5. Agenda 1. National case study: Welfare reform impacts 2. Regional case study: London 3. Local case study: Winchester 4. LIFT dashboard: Low Income Family Tracker 5. Next steps
- 7. National case study • Policy in Practice analysed the impact of the two child limit to tax credits. • From April, a third child born to low income families will miss out on up to £2,780 of tax credit support a year. • This change will affect 8,000 children born in April and one million children by 2020. See policyinpractice.co.uk/blog
- 8. National case study • Welfare reforms will take almost £13bn a year from claimants by 2020-21 • Cumulative loss since 2010 to £27bn a year • Equivalent to £690 a year for every adult of working age source: Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research
- 9. National case study "The worst is yet to come for those who will be most severely hit, namely low income families with children. Local authorities need to plan ahead for the impact." Professor Christina Beatty, Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research source: Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research
- 10. Analysis must address local needs • Analysis at the national level is rarely transformed in concrete actions at the regional and local level • Organisations tasked to deliver welfare programmes on the front-line need actionable information • Household level data allows to extrapolate information at every desired level
- 11. 111111 Poll 1: How do you currently assess the impact a policy change will have on your customer?
- 12. Poll 1: results
- 14. 14 London Boroughs Sharing Data! • 443,619 low income households • 544,985 adults • 354,048 children • 5.6m records collected across 12 months • 5 separate policy scenarios from 2015 - 2020 • 27% of the total population in participating boroughs
- 16. Policy in Practice’s approach Your Housing Benefit / Council Tax data Our Universal Benefit Calculator Rich, detailed impact assessment: who is impacted and what are the Council-wide effects? 1. Use local data and insights to inform better decision making 2. See the impact of different models together with ongoing welfare reforms 3. Inform better strategic and operational decisions
- 17. From one policy on many people, to many policies on one person
- 18. Impact of welfare reform 3 boroughs most affected by benefit cap: 1. Enfield (1,038 households) 2. Hackney (997 households) 3. Lambeth (537 households) Number of households affected Average weekly income reduction for those affected Total yearly income reduction Under-occupation 23,385 £21.68 £26,365,831 LHA Cap 51,149 £47.30 £125,806,080 Benefit cap (£23k) * 6,560 £72.84 £24,847,181 Council Tax Support 256,497 £3.91 £52,150,970 Cumulative impact of welfare reform 273,964 £16.10 £229,362,661 Total DHPallocation across 14 boroughs Table 1: The impact of individual welfare reforms Pre-2017 reforms £21,093,222
- 20. Measuring living standards and economic deprivation Two approaches to capture levels of economic deprivations in London Relative poverty measure (60% of median income) Financial risk indicator Income vs Needs Advantages Simple & established measure Develops from households' needs Provide a homogenous benchmark Provide a close estimate of families real financial circumstances Useful in setting policy objectives Highly operational insight Disadvantages Doesn't capture costs Complex to model and measure Does not describe how households' are coping Parameters can be tweaked, harder to enforce consistently Limited operational implications
- 21. In relative poverty At financial risk Overall cohort Total number of households 79,252 93,042 443,619 1. Social rent (59.8%) 1.Social rent (58.9%) 1. Social rent (60.6 %) 2. Owner- occupiers (25.5%) 2. Private rent (27.6%) 2. Private rent (25.2%) Percentage in work 17.0% 24.7% 32.9% Average rent £547.70 £822.49 £686.63 Highly impacted by welfare reform 6.6% 19.9% 9.2% Receiving sickness or disability benefits 20.3% 23.6% 30.9% Tenure types most affected Living standards (Jan 2017)
- 22. Hackney and Enfield show the highest % of economic deprivations, under both measures. H&F, Lambeth & Camden show higher % of people at financial risk than households living in poverty Relative poverty vs financial risk indicators, by borough
- 23. Relative poverty vs financial risk indicators, by ward
- 24. Tracking households over time 12 months worth of data allow us to track changes in circumstances for each household 452,101 households in Jan 2016 443,619 households in Jan 2017 67,397 households moved off HB 58,915 households joined the data
- 25. Conclusions • Aggregate statistics and KPIs overshadow the complex dynamics affecting the pockets and prospects of low-income households. • Benchmarking performance with your peers is a powerful way to shape your regional anti-poverty strategy toward what is most effective. • Understanding the impact of welfare reform, and changes in employment and housing can be useful predictors of risk and crisis, allowing you to act pre-emptively. • Welfare reform will continue to impact large numbers of families. We have shown how you can target your support to households most likely to be facing financial crisis.
- 26. Local case study - Winchester • Winchester Council want to track the effectiveness of introducing a new financial tool in support of their tenants • A new type of bank account has been developed to safeguard claimants who will struggle to pay their monthly rent • Ahead of UC roll out, Winchester Council want to test whether the new financial product will help families improve their budgeting skills, reducing arrears and limit the risk of transitioning to the new system.
- 27. Testing the effectiveness of interventions • Experimental approach: 2 groups of 100 hig risk households in receipt of housing benefits and living in council owned properties, one trial and one control group • Selected through a randomised sample methodology by the University of Southampton • Policy in Practice will support the Winchester Council by providing an objective analysis of the overall economic circumstances of both groups before and after the trial
- 28. Low Income Family Tracker (LIFT) Give visibility Explain the complex picture of reforms to Cabinet and show Members who in their ward is affected by reforms. See the situation of households you rarely engage with. Identify trends and act Combine snapshots of your data over time to spot developing trends. Use sophisticated targeting techniques to predict where you should target support. Evidence the impact your interventions are having. Forecast future need See the individual and cumulative impacts of current and future reforms, including mitigating measures, will affect individual households through to 2020. Access insights in a click Dissect your data yourself. Compare impacts by location, by vulnerable groups, by tenure, or other factors you need. View sub groups, such as those in arrears.
- 29. 292929 Poll 2: What would you use the LIFT dashboard for?
- 30. Poll 2: results
- 31. SEPTEMBER 2017 CENTRAL LONDON and online NATIONAL WELFARE IMPLEMENTATION SUMMIT A practice-led investigation into Universal Credit
- 32. 32 Questions
- 33. Next steps Short survey: • Any questions • Request a tailored demo and quote for a Policy Dashboard • Request the Winchester City Council case study
- 34. www.policyinpractice.co.uk Thank you Deven Ghelani deven@policyinpractice.co.uk Giovanni Tonutti giovanni@policyinpractice.co.uk 0330 088 9242 hello@policyinpractice.co.uk
Editor's Notes
- [Are we using polls?]
- So today’s agenda Why you are here The difference between the two sessions today What we need from you and what you get in return Next Steps: DWP Letter Your participation in the project Universal Credit data Intros :Go round the room, introduce yourself and say what you want to get out of today, what would you like to see the analysis or software do? I have a full presentation but can tailor it to your needs. Policy : l’ll quickly recap the welfare reform changes that are still to come in this parliament, that we know of, and share some of the analysis we’ve done on the national impact that welfare reforms have had to date. Local picture: More interestingly, I’ll then focus on the local picture of welfare reforms and share some examples of work we’ve done with other clients. I’ll demonstrate why every household matters by showing you the different impacts of reforms on next door neighbours. Our approach: By now you’ll want to know how we do the analysis so I’ll take you through our approach and show you a dataset CTRS: I have some examples of the CTRS modelling work we’ve done for other clients to show you Software: And then we’ll take a look at our software Feedback from other clients and frontline advisors Next steps
- Slide shows the uneven impact of welfare reforms. This is all welfare reforms to 20-21 by region. North West and North East will be worst hit.
- Slide shows the timeline of welfare reforms still to come
- Poll 1: How do you currently assess the impact a policy change will have on your customer? We don’t carry out any type of analysis I rely on the information provided by the DWP and other government agencies I look for studies published by academics and think tanks (i.e. LGA) We carry out analysis and research in house We commission this type of work to third party organisations
- Our approach to complete a person centred Impact Assessment using your Housing Benefit and Council Tax Data Sets- REDACTED data – speak to this. and our software will cleanse the data so that our software can recognise the format and we run it through our engine and it creates reports of actionable insights. It will show who and how people are going to be affected by current and future reforms. If a question comes up We currently work offline however are looking to run this through a online server to speed up the process. However if this was a concern we can still do this through a local server.
- Governments may know how one policy affects many people. We can show how all policies combined affect one person. We make the welfare system simple to understand so people can make decisions that are right for them.
- Governments may know how one policy affects many people. We can show how all policies combined affect one person. We make the welfare system simple to understand so people can make decisions that are right for them.
- Poll 2: How do you currently use your data? A: We don't use data effectively We have a corporate team that does that We do that, but not very well I use data effectively in my day to day role Departments across the council use data effectively in their day to day role
- Q: How long would a typical case take to assess? Q: How long does it take to get started with this software? Q: What customisations can you do for me? Q: What training and support do you give for clients? Account management story: training (webinars, Olark) / on boarding / roll out / usage monitoring