More Hurricanes Likely In 2023 Due To Heat Wave, NOAA Says

FLORIDA — In an about-face from earlier 2023 Atlantic hurricane season outlooks, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Thursday that the region can expect an above-average number of hurricanes as the peak hurricane period of August through October gets underway.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration's Climate Prediction Center, said unexpected changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions will likely influence the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends Nov. 30.

While tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico during the next seven days, NOAA is now predicting 14 to 21 named storms this season, an increase from its May prediction of 12 to 17 storms.

Of the 14 to 21 storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes, according to Rosencrans. This increases the National Hurricane Center's outlook for the season from near-normal to "an above-normal level of activity."

The reason for the change is the same one that's keeping Floridians sheltered in air-conditioned offices, homes and businesses: an unprecedented heat wave.

This week, the state's four National Weather Service offices posted "extreme heat advisories" throughout the state, some for the first time in recorded forecasting history.

“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Rosencrans. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”

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The vigorous start of this year's hurricane season may have a prelude for things to come, he said. Although NOAA's May forecast anticipated the development of El Niño to lead to more favorable tropical storm conditions in the Atlantic, the season kicked off with unusually high tropical storm activity. Five storms reach tropical storm strength and one developed into Hurricane Don.

Rosencrans said the conditions that forecasters predicted would limit hurricane activity have been slow to develop.

"Climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season," he said.

According to Thursday's outlook, other key factors resulting in the forecast change include a below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African monsoon.

Rosencrans said NOAA is 70 percent certain about Thursday's updated outlook predicting two to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 to 5 levels.

A weather disturbance becomes a tropical storm when wind speeds reach 39 mph and becomes a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph.